Thinking · Reflection

Find the assumption behind the decision

A practical way to examine a mental model: make its prediction explicit, test it, and specify what would change it.

Mike Vaughan · April 11, 2025 · 2 min read · updated September 26, 2026


“If I want this done properly, I need to do it myself.”

That belief can make sense after a poor handoff. It can also become the reason a manager has no time to lead and a team has no chance to improve. A rule that helped once can outlive the conditions that made it useful.

Calling it a mental model does not solve the problem. Making its prediction visible gives us somewhere to start.

Ask what the person expects

In an illustrative coaching conversation, the manager says delegation will reduce quality. Ask what they expect to happen on a particular task. Which part will go wrong? What experience supports that expectation? What would a successful handoff need?

These questions avoid jumping straight to “you need to let go.” The belief may point to a real gap in skill, unclear standards, or an earlier agreement that was never understood.

Separate the explanation from the person

The aim is not to diagnose a “fixed mindset” from one conversation. Work with a specific explanation: “Without my direct involvement, this task will miss the quality standard.”

That explanation can be examined. The manager's identity cannot be settled by the outcome of a small exercise.

Ask for an alternative explanation too. Perhaps the earlier handoff failed because the recipient did not know which quality checks mattered. That suggests a different action from taking the task back.

Design a bounded test

Choose a task with manageable consequences. Agree on the result, the support, and a review point. Have the manager predict what will happen before the handoff.

Afterward, compare the prediction with the record. What required intervention? What worked without it? Did the result depend on support that would not be available next time?

One successful test should not become a new universal rule. It may support a narrower revision: “This person can handle this kind of task when the quality standard and escalation point are explicit.”

Carry the revision into another situation

The next task should be related but different. Otherwise the manager may have learned an exception without reconsidering the underlying assumption.

This is a practical account of learning from a belief and its consequences. It does not require claims that a particular activity “rewires the brain,” or that discomfort proves a mental model is changing. Frustration may mean the task is poorly designed or the person lacks support.

What to record

Keep the original prediction, the observation, the revised explanation, and the next test. For the individual, that makes change inspectable. For a learning designer, it reveals whether the experience created a useful opportunity to examine an assumption.

Try it: Complete this sentence about one current decision: “I expect ___ because I believe ___. I would reconsider if ___.”

Concepts in this piece

  • The Thinking Effect · Examine an assumption, make a decision, learn from what happens, and try again.

Bring a real problem

What does your learning need to change?

A role people are struggling with. A decision that keeps going wrong. A capability you need to see before giving someone more responsibility. Start there.

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